Bitcoin’s MACD Warning: Historical Patterns Suggest Caution Amid Bearish Signal

In November 2025, Bitcoin's monthly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram turned negative, flashing a technical warning signal that has historically preceded significant bear markets in the cryptocurrency's price cycles. This development marks a notable shift in momentum, as the indicator crossed below the zero line—a confirmation of weakening bullish momentum. The MACD, a widely followed trend-following momentum indicator, suggests that Bitcoin's upward trajectory may be facing substantial headwinds. The significance of this signal cannot be understated when viewed through a historical lens. Similar MACD patterns have reliably foreshadowed prolonged downturns in previous Bitcoin cycles. Most notably, this technical configuration preceded the 2021-2022 correction that saw Bitcoin decline from its all-time high near $70,000 to approximately $50,000—a drop of nearly 30%. Earlier instances include the bear markets of 2018 and 2014, both of which were characterized by extended periods of price consolidation and decline following similar MACD warnings. November's 17% price decline served as the catalyst for this technical breakdown, pushing Bitcoin below key monthly support levels. This movement represents more than just short-term volatility; it suggests a potential shift in the underlying market structure. The monthly timeframe is particularly significant for institutional and long-term investors, as it filters out short-term noise and focuses on sustained trends. While technical indicators should never be viewed in isolation, the MACD's bearish crossover on the monthly chart warrants careful consideration by market participants. Historical precedent suggests that such signals often mark the beginning of extended correction phases rather than brief pullbacks. However, it's crucial to remember that past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and Bitcoin has consistently defied pessimistic predictions throughout its history. As of early 2026, the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve with increasing institutional adoption and regulatory developments that may influence price action differently than in previous cycles. Nevertheless, the current technical setup suggests that investors should exercise caution, implement appropriate risk management strategies, and prepare for potentially increased volatility in the coming months. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this signal will follow historical patterns or whether Bitcoin's fundamental strengths will override technical warnings.

Bitcoin’s MACD Turns Red, Signaling Potential Bearish Shift

Bitcoin’s monthly MACD histogram flipped negative in November, a technical signal historically associated with major bear markets. The cryptocurrency’s price dropped 17% during the month, pushing the indicator below the zero line—a confirmation of weakening momentum.

This pattern has preceded prolonged downturns in past cycles, including the 2021-2022 collapse from $70,000 to $50,000 and earlier bear markets in 2018 and 2014. Analysts caution that while historical signals are instructive, macroeconomic headwinds—including Treasury yield volatility and a strong dollar—could amplify downside risks.

Despite potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, market sentiment remains fragile. The red MACD crossover now joins a growing list of cautionary indicators for BTC.

Bitcoin's Sharp Decline Erases $640 Million in Leveraged Positions

Bitcoin's abrupt drop to $85,000 triggered a cascade of liquidations across major cryptocurrency exchanges, wiping out $640 million in Leveraged positions. The sell-off underscored the volatility inherent in digital asset markets, where high leverage ratios amplify both gains and losses.

Market participants faced margin calls as prices breached critical support levels. The liquidation storm affected perpetual swaps and futures contracts, with long positions bearing the brunt of the downturn. Exchange order books showed thin liquidity during the steepest declines, exacerbating price movements.

Bitcoin Nears Critical Support Zone as Analysts Warn of Further Downturn

Bitcoin (BTC) hovers NEAR historically significant support levels, trading at $86,032 amid a 0.7% weekly decline. Veteran analyst Peter Brandt flags potential downward momentum, suggesting prices may test lower channel boundaries. Market sentiment remains cautious as traders assess whether this dip represents a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction.

The 'Green Zone'—a key technical area where bitcoin has historically rebounded—now serves as the battleground between bulls and bears. Brandt's warning echoes concerns among institutional investors, particularly Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy, which maintains one of the largest corporate BTC holdings. A sustained breakdown below this level could trigger accelerated selling pressure across crypto markets.

Strategy CEO Signals Potential Bitcoin Sales as Last Resort Amid Stock Pressure

Strategy CEO Phong Le has introduced a nuanced shift in the company's Bitcoin strategy, acknowledging potential sales if its stock price falls below net asset value and financing options dry up. The revelation comes as the firm faces $750-$800 million in annual dividend payments on preferred shares, with its mNAV currently hovering at 0.96—below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

The company maintains its position as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder with approximately 650,000 BTC. Le emphasized any sales WOULD be a last resort, stating "I would not want to be the company that sells Bitcoin." The comments follow Michael Saylor's cryptic tweet about adding "green dots" to his Bitcoin tracker, which fueled market speculation.

Strategy has launched a new credit dashboard to reassure investors after recent market volatility. The development marks a significant departure from the firm's longstanding "never sell" policy, reflecting the complex calculus of maintaining Bitcoin reserves while meeting corporate obligations.

Bitcoin Faces Seasonal Headwinds as Historical Data Points to Weak December Performance

Bitcoin's 5% decline in 2025 contrasts sharply with its early October all-time highs, while a 21% monthly drop fuels bearish sentiment. Historical patterns since 2013 reveal December typically delivers median losses of 3.2%, with only five positive years out of twelve.

The correlation between negative Novembers and subsequent December declines has held without exception since 2013. Yet long-term projections remain bullish, with analysts forecasting a potential tripling to $270,000 by 2030 - contingent on maintaining 25% annual returns.

Bitcoin's fundamental case endures through its 21 million supply cap and accelerating institutional adoption. Market participants now watch whether this month will extend the established seasonal pattern or defy historical trends.

Bitcoin Relief Rally Bets Grow as DeepSnitch AI Presale Surges Past $625K

Bitcoin shows signs of stabilizing after a week of declines, with analysts flagging potential for a relief rally. Technical indicators suggest BTC may have bottomed, as RSI nears oversold territory. 'Short-term structure looks stable,' says trader Mister Crypto, noting accumulation by large investors.

Meanwhile, capital rotates into high-upside plays like DeepSnitch AI. The AI prediction platform's $625K presale haul validates its 100x narrative among traders seeking alpha beyond majors. Market sentiment hinges on this week's FOMC meeting, where dovish signals could reignite risk appetite.